🤔 Texas Hill Country Real Estate: Buy Now or Wait?

Rates, inventory, prices—how to time your move.

Listings are up, prices are stabilizing, and buyers finally have leverage again in the Texas Hill Country.

Here’s your concise look at why the current window favors purchasers—from negotiability and concessions to town-by-town dynamics.

Texas Hill Country Real Estate Update: Why Now Is a Great Time to Buy

By Ryan Rendon · Updated · Fredericksburg & Kerrville, TX

Bottom line: Inventory has climbed, days on market are longer, and sellers are negotiating (price reductions, closing cost credits, and rate buydowns). Rates remain a headwind—but today’s concessions can offset the monthly impact while you shop deliberately.

What’s inside

  1. From Seller’s Market to Balance
  2. Rates & Your Buying Power
  3. City Snapshots: Austin & San Antonio
  4. Fredericksburg: Wine Country & STR Potential
  5. Kerrville: River Town Value
  6. Economic & Demographic Drivers
  7. Remote Work & Lifestyle Appeal
  8. Environmental Considerations
  9. Final Takeaways for Buyers & Sellers

From Seller’s Market to Buyer-Friendly Balance

After years of bidding wars, the pace has cooled. Listings are up and homes are sitting longer, creating space to negotiate on price, repairs, and timelines. Many buyers are winning deals without rushing—and with terms they actually like.

Rising Interest Rates & Your Buying Power

Rates are higher than early-year lows (still below 2023’s peak). The trade-off: more inventory + slower tempo = leverage. Recent wins include 10–15% below list, plus sellers covering up to 3% closing costs or rate buydowns. Those offsets can meaningfully reduce your effective monthly cost.

City Snapshots: Austin & San Antonio

Austin: Active listings have eased price pressure and restored sanity for long-term buyers.
San Antonio: ~40%+ jump in active listings and a slight price dip = lots of choice. (For SATX, I’ll loop in Tracy Rona, Calvary Group.)

Fredericksburg: Wine Country Homes & Investment Potential

Median around $495,000 with roughly 12.5 months of inventory—unusually high. Translation: ample selection and negotiating room. Investors eye the robust short-term rental demand tied to wine tourism; end-users enjoy options from historic cottages to modern Hill Country builds.

Kerrville: Affordability with Hill Country Charm

Median near $318,000; about 6 months of supply—a balanced market. Riverside amenities, parks, and a friendly vibe make Kerrville a value play for buyers prioritizing scenery and access to the Guadalupe without boutique-town pricing.

Economic & Demographic Drivers

Texas remains a magnet: job growth, no state income tax, and business migration from high-tax states. Austin tech and San Antonio’s diversified economy continue to pull new residents into the broader Hill Country housing funnel.

Remote Work & Lifestyle Appeal

Freedom to live where you thrive keeps demand resilient. Buyers trade city traffic for small-town community, wineries, rivers, and trail systems—while staying within striking distance of major airports and pro services.

Environmental Considerations

Nature is a perk—and a planning item. About 7% of Hill Country properties face severe flood risk over 30 years; roughly 67% show some wildfire risk per First Street Foundation modeling. Smart due diligence includes: FEMA + local flood maps, defensible space, roof class, hydrant distances, and insurance quotes before option expiration.

Pro tip: Ask for a concession mix (price reduction + closing-cost credit + temporary 2-1 buydown). Often beats “price only” negotiations on monthly affordability.

Final Takeaways for Buyers & Sellers

Buyers: This is the best shopping window in years—more inventory, longer DOM, and real concessions. Rates sting, but a well-structured offer can neutralize much of the impact.
Sellers: Price to the market, prep thoroughly, and expect negotiation. Well-presented homes still move—just without last year’s frenzy.

Want a custom Hill Country buy plan?

Tell me your budget, timeline, and preferred towns. I’ll send a short list with deal-ready properties, risk screens (flood/fire), and a negotiation strategy tailored to you.

Start my plan
Transcript
Are you considering buying a new home in the Texas Hill Country? Well, now might be the perfect time. With more listings, better prices, and unforgettable remote working options in charming towns like Fredericksburg and Kerrville, Texas. Welcome back to the channel, guys. Ryan Reardon, Reardon Realty Group, your favorite realtor right here in the Texas Hill Country. If you haven't subscribed to the channel yet, make sure you do so. But also hit that little bell so you can get notified anytime. I put out videos just like this one. So today we are hopping into the hot topics with the real estate market here in the Texas Hill Country. If you're thinking about buying or selling or just curious about the real estate market, this video is for you. So grab a drink, sit back, and let's get this video started. Okay, so first off let's talk about the shift in the market. So the last few years we have seen an insane seller's market. But things are definitely starting to balance out. Inventory is definitely on the rise. And homes are sitting on the market much, much longer, which means more negotiating power for you as a buyer. This market shift is giving buyers a chance to find their dream home without being in some crazy bidding war situation. Now let's go ahead and touch on these interest rates. So they've been climbing since the start of the year, and while they're still below the peak of 2023, they are impacting borrowing cost. And of course this means that you as a buyer may have to adjust your budget. But don't worry, it's not all bad news. With quite a few more homes on the market and with more negotiating power for you as a buyer, you can still find some great deals. And to give you a quick example, this. I've had buyers within the last 3 to 4 months that were able to get their properties for at least 10 to 15% below the list price, and in other cases, we've actually been able to ask the sellers to cover up to 3% of the closing cost, but also to buy down their rates in seller's markets like we had before. Good luck asking for anything like that. If you weren't overpaying for the property and had zero contingencies, you weren't buying a home. But now let's go ahead and take a moment to zoom in on some specific areas and cities like Austin. We've seen a pretty significant jump in active listings on the market, which has helped balance things out by quite a bit. Homes here in Austin have been appreciating like crazy over this past decade, making it a solid long term investment spot. However, the prices have started to stabilize, which is a great thing for you as buyers because you're not having to buy at the peak peak prices. Meanwhile, in San Antonio, the market continues to stay resilient. There's been a slight dip in home prices, but with 40% increase in active listings, buyers have plenty of options to choose from. Prices have slightly decreased, making it a pretty good time for you as a buyer to jump into this market if you have an eye in this vibrant city. And of course, I don't personally serve San Antonio. I focus on the Central Texas Hill Country area, but I do have a great colleague in San Antonio. His name is Tracy Rona with the Calvary Group. So if you do need a great agent, all his contact information is above. I definitely suggest you reach out to him. Now let's go ahead and talk about Fredericksburg and Kerrville, Texas, two gyms that are in the heart of the Texas Hill Country. Fredericksburg, of course, is known for its German heritage and its vibrant wine scene. The real estate market here is pretty darn unique, with a mix, of course, historic homes, modern buildings, and plenty of land. And then the median home price in Fredricksburg is right around 495,000. As of the second quarter of this year, with a whopping 12.5 months of inventory on the market. Needless to say, with that amount of inventory that is giving buyers a whole lot of opportunities to get pretty good deals. Now, curb on the hand offers a more laid back atmosphere with beautiful views of the Guadalupe River. Now, the median home price here in Kerrville is quite a bit lower than Fredricksburg, sitting at 318,000 and only six months of inventory on the market, making it an attractive options for those seeking affordability without sacrificing that Hill Country charm. And with a similar story, but of course not near the amount of inventory there is opportunities in the Kerrville market to get pretty good deals. But like I said, 12.5 months to comparison, six months is completely different. So one of the reasons the Texas Hill Country remains a hot spot is the local economy. Job growth is pretty solid, and people are moving here for the low cost of living, but also the great quality of life. This ongoing demand helps keep the housing market steady even when interest rates go up. Now, areas like Austin and San Antonio continue to attract new residents due to the robust job market, but also the lower cost of living in comparison to other areas like California. The tech industry in Austin is absolutely booming, and San Antonio's diverse economy is growing steadily. This influx of new residents ensures that the housing demand remains strong. And then on top of that, Texas has a favorable business environment because we do not have any state income tax, which attracts companies and workers from higher tax states. This migration fuels the demand for housing, particularly in attractive regions like the Texas Hill Country and the state. Strong educational institution and quality health care systems further support this trend, as well. Now, the Texas economy is also bolstered by industries such as health care, finance and energy. This tourism supports local businesses and keeps the economy vibrant, making it an appealing place for people to move and invest in. Now again, let's talk about Kerrville and Fredericksburg, specifically, with the growth of the tech industry in both San Antonio and Austin and many of those jobs offering remote work opportunities. Both Fredricksburg and Kerrville have become great small town options. You can enjoy the charm and tranquility of these two towns without dealing with the insane traffic and population growth that larger cities like San Antonio and Austin are experiencing. This makes Fredericksburg and Kerrville attractive for those who are looking for a quieter lifestyle, while still having access to great job opportunities. And speaking of affordability, while these higher interest rates do make things tougher, is no doubt about it. The recent moderation home price growth does help buyers out quite a bit. You might actually find homes in your budget with less fire competition driving up those prices. So if you haven't priced out of the market in the past, now may be a good opportunity to jump back in the game and find your new dream home. Now, I do have to mention some very important environmental factors to consider. The Hill Country is known for its natural beauty, but it also comes with its risk of flooding and occasionally wildflowers. So you want to make sure, do your homework, and understand the potential hazards when you're looking for a new property. It is crucial to factor these into your buying decisions. So for a quick example, about 7% of the properties in the hill country are at risk for severe flooding over the next 30 years. When it comes to wildfires, the risk is significant as well. According to First Street Foundation, 67% of properties in the Hill Country are at risk of being affected by wildfires over the next 30 years. The increasing frequency and intensity of these fires are due to the hotter and drier conditions, making it essential to consider these factors when buying a home in our region. So what does all of this mean to you? If you're a buyer, this may be one of the best time in recent years to buy a home in the Texas Hill Country with more inventory, with houses staying on the market longer, with prices stabilizing, you really do have a lot going for you. And then for all you sellers out there, being patient but also realistic with your pricing can also lead to successful sales. And one of the last things I want to leave with you, the Texas Hill Country is a great place for future investments with its scenic beauty, outdoor activities and proximity to major cities is a desirable location for many people. So whether you're looking to buy a home for yourself or as an investment property such as a short term rental, the long term prospects remain positive. One of the best pieces of advice I can give you is staying informed with the local real estate market. So whether you're looking to buy in three days or three years, I would love to be a realtor choice. All my contact information is above, but also down in the description. And make sure you watch this next video. I think you're really going to like it or see you in the next video.